Twins 3, Nationals 12: Things Are Going from Wurst to Worse (2024)

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Pablo Lopez: 5.0 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 5 K (74 pitches, 55 strikes (74.3%)
Home Runs: Carlos Correa (3)
Bottom 3 WPA: Pablo Lopez (-0.297), Christian Vazquez (-0.061), Manuel Margot (-0.053)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

After being swept in two straight series against the Yankees and Guardians, the Twins enter Monday night desperately needing a win. With Pablo Lopez on the mound, it seemed the perfect time to get back on track as they opened up against the Washington Nationals.

The Twins would strike first, but only with some missed opportunities blemishing the effort. In the second inning, following a Byron Buxton single, Willi Castro sent a double to left field. As Buxton was using his speed to get from first to third, it looked like he was beginning to slow down until getting what must have been a surprise wave home. That hesitation was enough to result in Buxton getting thrown out at home.

Thankfully, on the next at-bat with Kyle Farmer at the plate, the Twins would bring Castro home to make it 1-0. For a team that has struggled to score runs in stretches, it is worth wondering what could have happened if Buxton had been full speed the whole way?

Washington Brings the Bats
On a night when the Twins missed an opportunity to get their offense going early, the Nationals got theirs rolling. In the second inning, the Nationals got on the board first with a two-run home run from Luis Garcia Jr. With another home run two innings later, Jesse Winker hit a solo shot to make it 3-1.

It was the fifth inning when the Nationals extended their lead to 7-1. The inning was less explosive than others but showcased the Nationals putting runners on base and moving them around. The RBI producers were singles by Jacob Young, Joey Meneses, and Garcia Jr.. While Lopez produced five strikeouts against the Nationals offense, they found many different ways to put runs on the board against the Twins top starter.

Mitchell Parker Flashes
Nationals rookie Mitchell Parker started his seventh game of 2024. Coming into the matchup with the Twins, Parker had a 3.09 ERA, 129 ERA+, 2.0 BB/9, and a 7.0 K/9. The numbers have not painted Parker as a strikeout pitcher, but he looked like one against the Twins Monday night. That would have been normal last season, but this season, the Twins have been less prone to the strikeout, and they still fell victim seven times when facing Parker.

The Twins, specifically Carlos Correa, were able to get to Parker late. After former Twin and National Denard Span called a Carlos Correa home run on a Parker breaking ball pre-game, Correa delivered in the sixth inning with a 2-run blast. The home run was the shortstop's third for the season. The Twins did leave runners on base in the sixth, which would have come back to haunt them if the game was closer.

Thielbar Struggles
Caleb Thielbar was the first arm out of the bullpen for the Twins. After allowing runs in appearance early to Thielbar’s start to the season, the left-hander had been getting the job done as of late. Monday night was not a continuation of that. Instead, he gave up three runs, three hits, and two walks. Some of the defensive plays around him did not help either.

Namely, Vazquez made a throw down to third, which hit the runner Young in the back. This allowed Young to score, Eddie Rosario to head home, and eventually score, as the veteran catcher was not able to corral the throw home to attempt and apply a tag.

Caleb Boushley Debut
Caleb Boushley debuted for the Twins after getting the call after Jay Jackson was DFA’d. Boushley’s first inning went as smoothly as one could hope. The right-hander faced the minimum and collected a strikeout. The next inning got rocky. Boushley almost got out of the inning with another zero, but he couldn’t put Rosario away, resulting in the Nationals extending their lead to 12-3.

What’s Next?
With a seven-game losing streak, Joe Ryan will take the mound for the Twins to try and bring a stop to the bleeding. The Nationals will send veteran left-hander Patrick Corbin to the mound. We can fully expect Rocco Baldelli to counter with a right-handed heavy lineup to try and get the offense going early.

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet